Michael E. D. Koenig

Abstract: Explains the apparent paradox that the difference in development between two countries, according to a given indiator, may be both increasing and decreasing at the same time. The reason is that “gap" and "lag" are not synonymous, but carry distinct meanings in this context.

An issue of considerable ongoing debate is whether the gap or lag in economic and technological development between the developed countries and the less developed countries is increasing or diminishing. Are the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, or is there some degree of convergence? This short essay does not attempt to answer that very complex question. What it does try to do is to point out that the terminology itself is a problem, and particularly so in any area such as information technology with a very rapid rate of growth. For —paradoxical as it appears— it is possible for a technological differential to be diminishing and increasing at the same time. The reason lies in the difference between gap and the similar concept of lag.

For example, assume a technology in developed Country A that is doubling in capability every five years. Less developed Country B was 20 years ago some 20 years behind where Country A was then; i.e.,in 1970 it was where Country A was in 1950. Now, in 1990, it is only 10 years behind; i.e., it is where Country A was in 1980. This follows from a rate of technological capacity growth in Country B that has (we assume) a 3 1/3 year doubling period. If we present the data visually, taking 1950 as the base year, with technological capability for that year expressed as one unit of capability, and if we assume that those rates of growth continue (although that is not necessary to illustrate the point being made), then we have the situation expressed in the following table.

The surprising observation is that even though Country B is quite clearly reducing the lag (closing the gap), in 1990 it is further behind in absolute units of technological capability than it was in 1970. Depending on how it is measured, the gap between Country A and Country B may simultaneously appear to be both diminishing and increasing, in this case diminishing as measured in “years behind,” but increasing as measured by some “unit of technological capability.”

It might at this point be useful to make a distinction between gap and lag terms — usually treated as synonyms in this context. We might consider the difference in capability as measured by years behind as lag, and the difference as measured by units of capability as gap. Thus Country B's gap is increasing while its lag is decreasing over the period of roughly 1965 to 2005. In a real situation, it is likely that the rate of growth in Country B would slow as it approached Country A in capability, converging upon the same growth rate (in this case a five–year doubling period) as that in Country A. However, the phenomenon of contradictory simultaneous views as to whether the gap/ lag is narrowing or widening would still exist. In fact, the effect of that convergence upon similar growth rates would be to stretch out the period of increasing gap and decreasing lag.

The more rapid the rate of growth of the underlying technology, the more pronounced this apparently paradoxical situation becomes. The rates of growth that we have used–doubling periods of five years and 3 1/3 yearsare actually modest by the standards of information technology, which tends to have doubling periods on the order of a year or two, a phenomenon known as Moore's Law [1]. By way of comparison, conventional hot–lead printing technology doubled in capability only every 24 years [2].

We are accustomed to technologies that grow sedately, where the gap/ lag paradoxes are neither so important nor so apparent. As information technology becomes increasingly important, it is correspondingly important that we recognize this apparent paradox so that we can more meaningfully comprehend the real status of the development gap/ lag.

 References

1. R. N. Noyce, “Microelectronics,” Scientific American 237-3 (September 1977): 62–69.

2. Michael E. D. Koenig, “The Information Controllability Explosion,” Library Journal 107–19 (1 Nov 1982): 2052–2054.

About the Author

Michael E. D. Koenig is Dean and Professor, Graduate School of Library and Information Science, Rosary College. He has degrees from Yale University, University of Chicago, and Drexel University. Dr. Koenig was Manager of Information Services, Pfizer, Inc; Director of Library Operations, Director of Development, Institute for Scientific Information; Vice President Operations, Swets North America; and Vice President Data Management, Tradenet, Inc. He has taught in the School of Library Service and in the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University. His professional interests include bibliometrics, the effect of information services upon productivity, and the information industry. His publications include about 40 articles and numerous book reviews. He has been a speaker or consultant in Latin America, China, Japan, and several European countries.

© 1992 Michael E. D. Koenig